Some of these unions boycotted the annual AFL-CIO convention in Chicago in late July. Then on September 27, the Change to Win group held its own founding convention, in St. Louis.

What does this mean for the Operating Engineers, the AFLCIO and for labor as a whole? Certainly it means an immediate loss of political influence. In the 2004 federal elections, labor gave $61.6 million to candidates and parties. But businesses gave $1.5 billion. (Source: Center for Responsive politics.)

So labor was already being outspent 24-1. Now, with the split, we will see labor donations becoming less effective. In more cases, different unions will be supporting opposing candidates. It is likely, for example that some unions outside the AFL-CIO may support Jim Talent (R-MO) for senator while AFL-CIO unions in the state support challenger Claire McCaskill.

The defection also means a major loss of revenue for the AFLCIO and its central labor councils and programs. Change to Win pulled 5.4 million union members out of the AFL-CIO’s 13 million base. That will translate into dramatic cuts in staffing and capabilities.

It is also likely that the two labor federations will bump heads in organizing and that incidents of raiding will increase. Change to Win and the AFL-CIO have different priorities. Change to Win plans to spend more than 75% of all its revenues on organizing, with less emphasis on influencing politics. The AFL-CIO also stresses organizing but believes in a strong effort to engage politicians.

The timing of this split is very bad for organized labor, which now represents 12 percent of workers (as opposed to 35% in 1950). In today’s political climate, federal judges and the National Labor Relations Board most often interpret the laws in favor of business interests. Businesses have grown openly hostile and have become unafraid of violating labor laws. Organizing has become extremely difficult. An example of this trend locally can be seen with Lohr’s Distributing Co., which distributes Anheuser-Busch products in the City of St. Louis. Lohr’s recently replaced its union workers permanently after they went on strike in protest of commission cutbacks. We see this trend in our own dealings with employers, who often push ahead as though labor laws don’t really mean anything.

Anti-union forces are surely licking their chops at news of labor’s split. They sense weakness in the labor movement—and this may cause them to act even more boldly in ignoring labor laws, disregarding contract language, and firing those who seek to organize. But anti-union forces shouldn’t get too smug. History has shown that when workers become too downtrodden and when the wealthy and the powerful become too oppressive, workers rise up and demand a fair share of our country’s wealth. This is what happened in the 1930s. This is what led to the tremendous growth of unions in the first place.